May 20, 2008 7:18 AM

Watch for the Race Chasm Today

Another primary day, another reemergence of the Race Chasm. With a population that's 7.5 percent black, Kentucky fits right into the Race Chasm, and not surprisingly, Hillary Clinton is favored to win. In Oregon, the population is just 1.9 percent black - outside the Race Chasm - and Barack Obama is favored to win.

As I've always said, it's hard to say race is singularly responsible for any given election result. But clearly, the Race Chasm dynamic is at play. In states with very large African American population, racial politics is a major force, but the African American population is able to offset the segment of the white vote that is racially motivated against a black candidate. In states with very few African Americans, racial politics just isn't a part of the debate. But in states with a moderately sized African American population, racial politics exists, but the black community isn't large enough to offset the segment of the white vote that is racially motivated.

The Huffington Post's Sam Stein quotes an Oregon political expert making part of this point today:

"Oregon is a state where race has not been an animating factor of political campaigns in the past. It has not been an issue since the 1860s, and it is not going to matter to people in the current election," said Joseph Lowndes, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Oregon and author of "From the New Deal to the New Right: Race and the Southern Origins of Modern Conservatism.

Stein is right - the Oregon results, if they go Obama's way, may explode the idea that Obama cannot win white working-class voters. But if both Oregon and Kentucky go the way they are expected to go, the results will only further confirm the Race Chasm.

UPDATE: For those wondering about West Virginia and how that fit into the theory, read this earlier post.

May 19, 2008 5:10 PM

Discussing the Oregon and Kentucky Primaries

Here's my Fox News discussion of the upcoming Kentucky and Oregon primaries.

May 19, 2008 11:28 AM

Fox News at 5:15 EST

I'm scheduled to be on Fox News at around 5:15 EST today.

May 19, 2008 8:36 AM

NYT MAG: Enviro Populism Threatens the GOP In the West

As promised late last week, the New York Times magazine published an article of mine that explores a little-noticed populist uprising here in the Mountain West - one around the oil and gas drilling boom. The article touches on a region and an issue - environmentalism - that is a major part of my upcoming book, The Uprising (due out on 5/27 and available for pre-order now).

During the conservative uprising of the 1980s, Republicans exploited environmental issues and Land Politics to create a wedge between those who want the planet protected and those who are employed in the natural resource industry. Call it the spotted owl-versus-jobs wedge. Conrad Burns, for instance, was originally elected to the U.S. Senate from Montana on a right-wing populist campaign that railed on environmentalists who supposedly wanted to eliminate logging and mining jobs. But now the pendulum has swung in the other direction, with Democrats using their pro-environment positions to wedge apart a national Republican Party that has put itself in direct conflict with its local grassroots base.

Continue reading NYT MAG: Enviro Populism Threatens the GOP In the West

May 18, 2008 8:47 PM

Sunday Evening Deep Thought

There are movies and television shows, and then there is The Wire - far and away the most compelling production made since the original advent of moving pictures.

May 17, 2008 6:21 PM

Us vs. Them

The New Republic's Peter Scoblic has a great op-ed in the Los Angeles Times about Bush's comments to the Israeli Knesset this week. It is a must-read.

Here's the crux:

But if there is anything that has been discredited by history, it is the argument that every enemy is Hitler, that negotiations constitute appeasement, and that talking will automatically lead to a slaughter of Holocaust-like proportions. It is an argument that conservatives made throughout the Cold War, and, if the charge seemed overblown at the time, it seems positively ludicrous with the clarity of hindsight.

The New Republic, of course, has been one of the most reflexively pro-war publications in Washington, helping beat the drum for the Iraq War. However, Scoblic's op-ed is spot on - and it derives from his new book, "Us vs. Them."

I've known Scoblic for years now, and as many problems I have had with the New Republic in the past, I have always found him to be a solid writer, and not prone to the kind of national security zealotry and extremism many at that publication champion. I confess that because I'm swamped trying to get ready for my book tour, I haven't had a chance read the book yet, but if the op-ed is representative of it, then it's probably a worthwhile read. Whether it signals a shift at the New Republic - I have no idea. But progressives certainly need more voices out there making the case that a radically different foreign policy is not just a good idea - but a necessity.

The truth is, both our international economic and military policy is not only making the world less safe - it is specifically making AMERICA less safe. Conservatives' attempt to make saber rattling and the concept of military action synonymous with "strength" and "toughness" is threatening our security. Democrats should be saying just that.

May 17, 2008 9:42 AM

Talking Election Stuff on Colorado PBS

I appeared on Colorado's statewide PBS show, Inside Out. We discussed the state of the election, as well as some other local issues. Watch it here.

May 16, 2008 6:51 AM

A New Washington Consensus?

For all the talk from "free trade"-backing politicians about needing to engage the world, most of them understand almost nothing about how the world sees our international economic policies. As I show in my new newspaper column this week, our so-called Washington Consensus policies on globalization are stirring a backlash in both the industrialized and developing worlds.

Continue reading A New Washington Consensus?

May 15, 2008 8:08 PM

How We Can Help In Myanmar

If you read the newspapers, it's easy to think that there's nothing we can do to help after the disaster in Myanmar. But that's not true. Oxfam has launched a fundraising drive that can have a real impact. If you have a blog, consider putting this banner ad on your site. And if you have some extra cash for a donation, consider contributing to Oxfam's efforts here.

https://donate.oxfamamerica.org/02/myanmar_psa

May 15, 2008 3:38 PM

Norquist Stuck Pining Away for His Glory Days

Chris Hayes attended the promotional event for Grover Norquist today and reports that Norquist noted that 70% Republicans are skeptical of free trade but, "they don't vote on that issue, so at one level I don't care."

Norquist may have been right in the past, but that seems to be changing, according to this post-election survey in 2006. It shows Republicans who considered voting Democrat listed the GOP's support for unfair trade deals as the top concern in considering the switch. That inkling, which started in 2006, may very well push these voters to Democrats in 2008, thanks to the recession and to more Democratic candidates voicing fair trade themes.

This is yet another example of why I said Norquist does not represent "new" thinking or "new" ideas - in fact, with this declaration, he's exposed himself as stuck in the past, still pining away for his glory days when rank-and-file Republican voters weren't so darn sick of the royalism he preaches.

May 15, 2008 11:05 AM

Check the NY Times Magazine This Sunday

Just wanted to let regular readers in on a project I've been toiling away at for some time that's now coming to fruition. I am scheduled to have a piece in this Sunday's New York Times Magazine that deals with some interesting issues boiling up in key swing states. I'll have more to say about the article when it comes out, but that's all I'll say for now. Be sure to check it out when it comes out and send me your feedback.

May 15, 2008 10:23 AM

The Mustache of Incoherence

Tom Friedman is known as the Mustache of Understanding for his pedantic, arrogant style - but, when you read Glenn Greenwald's piece this morning, you realize that's a misnomer. Tom Friedman is not the Mustache of Understanding - he is the Mustache of Incoherence.